Nathaniel Krueger
Geography 370
Quantitative Methods
Introduction
When
people think of college towns, they think of loud music, drinking and out of
control behavior. The same goes for the citizens of Eau Claire, whom frequently
make accusations assuming that the areas with more bars tend to be the loudest
and rowdiest, as geographers we are here to spatial analyze what the data tells
us. Not to say that there is not an association between the number of bars and
disorderly conducts. In this assignment as an independent researcher I was
given the data and tasked with exploring the number of disorderly conducts
violations in all of Eau Claire from 2003 and 2009. The location of bars
throughout Eau Claire are also noted. Furthermore I want to investigate whether
or not there is a link been violence and the bar scene. The addresses of the
disorderly conducts are also attached to the points to give a spatial
reference. The issue here is that older
citizens and family oriented people would not want to raise a family or live
where there is a high probability of a fight being started. My research is
looking into this to see if there is a link between the location of bars and
the number of disorderly conducts related to those areas. The sole purpose is
simply to determine if areas with more bars, have more disorderly conducts
reported. This assignment was completed using ESRI ArcMap. In the maps I will
display mean center, weighted mean center, and standard deviation. Graduated symbols
will be used to display the number of disorderly conducts in each area,
including different colors for the year 2003 to 2009.
Methodology
A few terms that
are crucial to understanding what is happening in this assignment in the mean
center, weighted mean center, standard deviation and z- score. A mean center is
a point that is the center of all data point, basically using the longitude and
latitude is a simple way to look at it. The weighted mean center is the
geographic center of a set of points that is adjusted to account for the
influence of each point. Standard deviation is the distance from the mean, for
the purposes of this assignment I will be only going out one standard deviation
which will include 68% of all the data points. Finally the z-score is a number
that tells you how far the data point is away from the mean. A z-score of 0
would mean that the date point is the average, there can be negative and
positive z-scores. In the context of this assignment, a z-score of 2.0 would
mean that there are more disorderly conducts occurring in that area in
comparison to the mean.
In
order to get a good idea of what we were looking at I first put the bars in Eau
Claire on the layer in ArcMap. Then I added in the Disorderly Conducts from the
years 2003 and 2009. From there I calculated the mean center and the weighted
mean center. Both of these operations were done in the Arc toolbox under the
spatial statistics tab. The only difference was that for the weighted mean
center I had to select count under the weighted category tab. The steps that
were done above accounted for three of my maps that I produced. The maps
contained the mean center and weighted mean center for 2003 and 2009, and one
combining the data from both. Each of the first three maps featured graduated
symbols to show where the most disorderly conducts occurred by location. I will
speak more about them in the discussion section. I ran this tool four times,
once for mean center 2003, weighted mean center 2009, mean center 2009 and
weighted mean center 2009. With these four points on the same map it starts to
give us an idea of the shift in disorderly conducts from 2003 to 2009. Also
while on the subject, the mean center of the bars in Eau Claire was calculated
for 2003 and 2009 in the same way that the mean centers for disorderly conduct
were done.
Next
standard distances were calculated in order to get an idea of where most of the
disorderly conducts were happening in relation to the mean center in Eau Claire.
Because we want to see what area has the most disorderly conducts I am only
going out one standard deviation. The tool for calculating standard distance is
also under the measuring geographic statistics tab near where we calculated the
mean center. Just as the first three maps produced I made another three
displaying the standard distances. Map 1 was for 2003, Map 2 for 2009 and the
third and final map was 2003 and 2009 together so we could analyze the shift
over the six year span. To produce the standard distance I again selected 2003
disorderly conducts for the input and the count for the weighted tab. After the
Arc is done processing there will be a symmetric circle that displays all the
data that is within one standard deviation from the mean. The data is correct,
though it is important to note that the Geographic Coordinate System that you
choose to use can affect the circle, simply because the world is not flat as
ArcMap portrays on screen. Next I made my circle 50% transparent underneath the
display tab, in order to not draw the map viewer from other aspects on the map.
I then repeated the steps above for 2009. Each of these standard distances were
placed on their own maps for 2003 and 2009, then they were placed on the same
map along with the disorderly conducts for each year, the bar data and the mean
center and weighted mean center.
The
last portion of this assignment is to deal with the z-scores and standard
deviations. The block group data is where the z-scores were calculated from.
The block groups were displayed using a choropleth map which illustrates the
amount of standard deviations above or below the mean the block groups are. To
choose the colors I wanted I went under the symbology tab and chose colors that
represented high and low standard deviations.
Results
After run a series of data processing tools to better
understand the data, I would say that the citizens of Eau Claire do have a
basis to imply that the more bars there are, the more disorderly conducts will
be associated with them. The mean centers and the weighted mean centers for
2003 and for 2009 did not shift what I consider significantly. I am failing to
reject the idea that bars are related to disorderly conduct. The mean centers
and the weighted mean centers for 2003 and for 2009 are located within a few
blocks of a number of water street bars. When closely examining the weighted
mean centers for 2003 and for 2009 the centers fall in the Chippewa River near
the west side of the river by the water street bridge. I have one main idea as
to why they fall there. I think that students who have been at house parties
that are underage avoid the foot bridge because historically cops wait around
the bridge getting people going back to the dorms. This in turn creates a pinch
point on the water street bridge. Also another factor that could contribute is
that there is housing on both sides of the Chippewa, not only near the bars.
Map 1: Disorderly Conduct in 2003
Below is a Map of disorderly conduct in Eau Claire in
2003, symbolized by a graduated symbol legend. We can see the number of
disorderly conducts displayed by the color brown. The Larger the circle the
more disorderly conducts that occurred there. Also displayed is the mean center
displayed by orange and the 2003 weighted mean center, displayed in red. We can
see that the weighted mean center has shifted slightly southwest from just the
mean center. The shift of the weighted mean center from the original mean center
is telling us that it is pulled that way because there were more crimes
occurring in that direction.
Map 2: Disorderly Conduct in 2009
Using the same graduated symbols as map one but with a
different color I mapped the disorderly conducts that were reported in 2009.
The mean center is represented by a blue dot and the weighted mean center by a
white dot. We can see the weighted mean center shifted to the southwest in
comparison to the mean center. There is a cluster of disorderly conducts that
occurred on the water street strip of bars.
Map 3: Disorderly Conducts from 2003
Compared to 2009
Map three is a map that displays the data from both Maps
1 and 2. I did this in order to get a better idea of the changes that occurred
in disorderly conduct from 2003 to 2009. This map displays the amount of
disorderly conducts from both years, along with both mean centers and weighted
mean centers. The map shows that from 2003 to 2009 both the mean center and the
weighted mean centers shifted north. Though the show similarity in the way the
weighted mean centers are pulled. What we can gather from this map is that in
the six years between the data collections that more crime is being committed
in the northern part of Eau Claire. This information also tells us that maybe
the number of disorderly conducts is decreases in the downtown water street
area, at least marginally.
Map 4: Disorderly Conducts in 2003
with the Standard Distance
Map 4 below relates to the standard distance, which is
telling us that 68% of all the disorderly conducts were committed within the circle
which is one standard deviation away from the weighted mean center. When we
were calculating the one standard distance we calculated it from the weighted
mean center rather than the mean center. It is not shocking that all of the
campus of UWEC falls within the circle. Under further investigation we find
that there are many crimes committed within this circle, along with the
disorderly conducts comes a large number of bars. This still does not prove that
the consumption of alcohol causes violence, but there is coincidentally a large
number of fights and bars near each other.
Map 5: Disorderly Conduct in 2009
with the Standard Distance
Similar to Map 4, Map 5 is again showing us a standard
distance that encompasses 68% of the disorderly conducts in Eau Claire. There
is really not much of a change in the location of the circle in comparison to
2003. To no surprise the campus of UWEC and all the bars on Water Street are
encompassed by the one standard deviation. The weighted mean center is the
white dot just to the west of the center of the circle. A large amount of the
disorderly conducts are near establishments that serve alcoholic beverages. But
yet again there is no direct link that can be proven due to lack of data. Majority
of off campus student housing is to the west and northwest of Water Street, if
a smaller circle was drawn to really dial in on the crimes it would include
basically just areas where students live.
Map 6: Standard Deviations/Distances
from 2003 to 2009
The map below is a combination of map 4 and map 5, this
allows us to compare data side by side from 2003 to 2009. The weighted mean
center shifted northwest from 2003 to 2009 and the similarly the standard
distance also shifted north from 2003 to 2009. Thought the differences are
noticeable we do see a lot of similarity. A reason for the shift to the north/
northewest may be more students moving into those neighborhood, or maybe at a
larger scale just more violence north of this area that is drawing it there.
Map 7: Locations of Bars in Eau
Claire and Standard Deviations of Disorderly Conduct
The map below shows the locations of
bars throughout Eau Claire. The red circle is the mean center of the bars in
Eau Claire. The legend shows what is above and below the standard deviations,
there is both negative and positive block groups, meaning that some areas have
more crime and some have less. The dark blue block areas represent high
disorderly conducts, it is clear to see that they are near the student housing,
minus one block to the southwest to the city. I don’t know much about the area
to the southwest of the city but if I had to guess I would say that it is an
area that has a low income, due to the fact that there is not a high
concentration of bars in the block. This map also shows us that there is quiet
a variance in the standard deviations of disorderly conduct around Eau Claire.
There was many block groups that had 0 disorderly conducts recorded, in
contrast one block group had 42. The city of Eau Claire had an average of
5.3593 Disorderly Conduct Crimes per Block Group. In correspondence, there is a
standard deviation of 7.81490. With these numbers as our baseline we were also
tasked with calculating z-scores for a few blocks.
(Xi):
Disorderly Conducts
Block
Group 41- Near Oakwood Mall
Xi:10
Mean: 5.3593
Standard
Deviation: 7.8149
Z-Score-(10-5.3593)/7.8149
Z-Score-0.5938
Block Group 46: Old Downtown
Xi: 40
Mean: 5.3593
Mean: 5.3593
Standard Deviation: 7.8149
Z-Score: (40-5.3593)/7.8149
Z-Score: 4.4326
Block Group 57: Southwest Eau Claire
Xi: 1
Mean: 5.3593
Standard Deviation: 7.8149
Mean: 5.3593
Standard Deviation: 7.8149
Z-Score : (1-5.3593)/7.8149
Z-Score : -0.5578
Conclusion
In
Conclusion I would say that overall a large amount of the disorderly conducts
in Eau Claire occurred near Water Street. Both the 2003 and the 2009 data sets
were very similar, with just slight differences. I think that the citizens of
Eau Claire have some basis as to their accusations. Though with the data we had
there was no real definitive correlation that could be made. I found that the
water street area absolutely does have a pull on the data, while it is not the
only area where incidents were high, it is easy to see on every map that it
contributed a large amount. Two blocks in this area were over two standard deviations
above the mean, hence more disorderly conducts occurred there. The implications
of this could possibly be to have classes regarding fighting around student
housing and the bars. While there still isn’t a link between drinking and
disorderly conducts it wouldn’t hurt to have a class on safe drinking and when
to know that you’ve had enough. I think that the use of things such as the safe
ride could solve this, less people walking around would mean less
confrontation. Some areas that could be lacking is we may not have all of the
data, not every fight is documented, and the cops aren’t always called. Also
the concentration of police in the downtown area is much higher than that of a
more upper class neighborhood. So possibly there are more fights in other areas
there is just less cops around to catch them. Much more extensive data and
research would have to be conducted. Lastly, I believe
personally that alcohol is a contributing factor. If there was a definitive way
to find that out I think a small percentage of the disorderly conduct in the
Water Street and student housing area would be between sober parties.
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